Impact of the 2022 European Energy Crisis on its Transportation Decarbonization Ambition: Life Cycle Techno-Economic Analysis 2023-01-0554

In several regions, such as Europe, California, among others, the switch to Electric Vehicles (EVs) has been heavily pushed by policymakers for their high powertrain efficiency and zero tailpipe emissions compared to conventional Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs). Consequently, only zero tailpipe emission vehicles will be sold in Europe from 2035 for the passenger cars and vans segment. But an EV does emit CO₂ emissions across its life cycle, mainly during production, and the Well-to-Tank (WTT) phase, i.e., from the electricity generation used to charge the batteries. Nonetheless, due to the high efficiency of the electric powertrain, the energy consumption is significantly less, making the cost of operation significantly low for EVs. Thus, clean electricity grid and cheap energy costs can make EVs one of the best options for decarbonizing transportation systems. Unfortunately, these two factors have been severely affected in Europe due to the ongoing energy crisis post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Europe’s electricity grid is around 20% powered by natural gas, out of which 40% was being imported from Russia, and is almost completely cut off now. Europe is restarting its coal-fired plants to meet the electricity demands, which will increase the electricity grid emissions. Moreover, European electricity prices have reached an all-time high in 2021. Since Russia’s invasion, electricity prices have risen further. Also, while the European Commission is appealing to its citizens to save up to 15% of energy to lower the demand and survive the winter, it must be noted that the electricity demand is expected to rise year-by-year due to higher electric vehicle sales, as targeted by the European Union earlier. Hence, this work highlights the increase in the life cycle emissions and total cost of ownership associated with EVs in the current European scenario, which is belying its ambition to decarbonize the transportation sector. The main results obtained shows that EV’s decarbonization potential will be the same as in 2020, i.e., emitting 0.13 kg/km, if fossil-based energy sources like coal are used to replace the Russian natural gas. While, in terms of total cost of ownership, EVs will continue to be the most expensive option and become even more expensive in the future. While it may also become the most expensive option in terms of operating cost.