Connected Vehicle Data Time Series Dependence for Machine Learning Model Selection and Specification 2021-01-0246

Connected vehicle data unlock compelling solutions for vehicle owners and fleet managers. In selecting machine learning algorithms for use in predicting a connected vehicle signal value, time series dependency is critical to understand. With little to no time series dependency, conventional machine learning models may be used with a feature set that has few or no lag variables. If there is a lot of time series dependency including long-term dependencies, deep learning architectures like variants of recurrent neural networks (RNN) may be a better approach. Further, at any time step, RNN features may be specified to use some number of past time steps to predict the latest value. This paper seeks to identify time series dependency of connected vehicle signals, and selection of the number of time steps to look back in the features set to minimize error.