Techno-Economic Analysis of Fixed-Route Autonomous and Electric Shuttles 2021-01-0061

This paper takes a realistic approach to develop a techno-economic analysis for fixed-route autonomous shuttles. To develop a model for analysis, the current state of technology was used to approximate three timelines for achieving SAE level 5 capabilities: progressive, realistic, and conservative. Within these timelines, there are four different increments for advancements in the technology laid out as follows: SAE Level 0 - human driver, SAE Level 4 - in-vehicle safety operator, SAE Level 4 - remote safety operator, and SAE Level 5 - no safety operator. These increments in the changes of the technology were chosen based on the trends in the industry. Various shuttle models were used based on different rider quantities and drive-train requirements (electric vs gas) in this analysis. This allows for further understanding of how these deployment plans will vary the cost for shuttles operating in high, mid, and low ridership demand environments. Additional drive-train comparison shows the savings based on the choice of electric vs ICE vehicles. Taking these parameters into consideration, simulations were run for the various vehicle models in the various ridership demand environments to produce the economic costs for each situation. It was found that in 15 years there is an economic savings of 72%, 68%, 43%, and 35% for small, medium, large, and extra-large shuttles, respectively if deployed with the conservative plan of becoming SAE Level 4 with an in-vehicle safety operator in 2 years, SAE Level 4 with a remote safety operator in 4 years, and SAE Level 5 in 8 years.