History and Prospects for Electric Vehicles and Electric Bikes: Pathway to Sustainable Carbon Free Energy and Transportation 2020-01-0974

The Electric Transportation Revolution (ETR) began with the General Motors USA EV1 project and Yamaha Japan Pedal Assist System (PAS) electric bike, both in 1993. Worldwide EB annual sales are 40 million with 300 million on the road, mostly in China. Mandates and government incentives influence the EV market, customer demand drives EB growth. The EPA CO₂ endangerment finding is forcing the auto industry to invest in EVs to help limit Mankind Made Carbon Dioxide Climate Change, MMCDCC, which is based on theoretical computer models that calculate global temperature. Measured temperature data, revised by modelers, used to validate these models has been challenged and so reported. Historical climatology data shows that Natural Climate Change, NCC, is more likely the CC cause. Known periodic variations of the sun’s orbit changes solar radiance and causes NCC. More CO₂ in the atmosphere produces more plant growth, more food, thus CO₂ is a beneficial gas. We propose a long term pathway to eliminate CO₂ as an issue for energy and transportation. Fossil fuels may be depleted in 200 years. During this period, transition worldwide to nuclear power and hydrogen for electricity and transportation is necessary. Nuclear fuels will be used forever as uranium extraction from seawater is now possible and is replenished by runoff from land. Nuclear electricity will produce hydrogen from electrolysis of water for vehicle use. Power plants and vehicles will thus not produce CO₂. With this prospect of sustainable carbon free electricity and vehicle fuel, the humanitarian thing to do today is to continue to use fossil fuels for both domains, in order to provide affordable heat in cold winters and cooling in hot summers which occurs in some regions of the world today until nuclear options are developed. This all is likely NCC as it has been for hundreds of millions of years on planet earth, and not MMCDCC.