Modeling Heavy/Medium-Duty Fuel Consumption Based on Drive Cycle Properties 2015-01-2812

This paper presents multiple methods for predicting heavy/medium-duty vehicle fuel consumption based on driving cycle information. A polynomial model, a black box artificial neural net model, a polynomial neural network model, and a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model were developed and verified using data collected from chassis testing performed on a parcel delivery diesel truck operating over the Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck (HHDDT), City Suburban Heavy Vehicle Cycle (CSHVC), New York Composite Cycle (NYCC), and hydraulic hybrid vehicle (HHV) drive cycles. Each model was trained using one of four drive cycles as a training cycle and the other three as testing cycles. By comparing the training and testing results, a representative training cycle was chosen and used to further tune each method. HHDDT as the training cycle gave the best predictive results, because HHDDT contains a variety of drive characteristics, such as high speed, acceleration, idling, and deceleration. Among the four model approaches, MARS gave the best predictive performance, with an average percent error of −1.84% over the four chassis dynamometer drive cycles. To further evaluate the accuracy of the predictive models, the approaches were applied to real-world data. MARS outperformed the other three approaches, providing an average percent error of −2.2% over four real-world road segments. The MARS model performance was then compared to powertrain modeling results over HHDDT, CSHVC, NYCC, and HHV drive cycles using NREL's Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim). The results indicated that the MARS method achieved comparable predictive performance with FASTSim.