From Model Validation to Reliability Assessment: Comments on Non-Deterministic Approaches (NDA) 2009-01-0569

This paper is a discussion of topics presented by the author at the Panel Session “Evaluation of Studies on Non-Deterministic Approaches (NDA) for Complex Systems” at the 2007 SAE World Congress. The emphasis herein is on issues in conducting model based reliability assessments, by combining verification and validation (V&V) of the model with a process compatible with traditional reliability assessments conducted as part of Reliability Based Design Optimization (RBDO). Formulations are presented and simplified to isolate each of the terms in V&V, and make each term compatible with subsequent RBDO while still accommodating non-deterministic design situations. The paper concludes with overall issues regarding V&V and Reliability, and compares this combined method with some other methods in use in the community and discussed at a follow-on SAE panel in 2008.