Real Time Destination Prediction Based On Efficient Routes 2006-01-0811

This paper presents a novel method for predicting the location of a driver's destination during the drive. Such a prediction can be used to help decide which information to automatically present to the driver, depending on where the driver is going. The prediction is based on the common intuition that drivers tend to chose efficient routes. We quantify this preference for efficiency probabilistically based on a database of driving trips we gathered with GPS receivers. We show how to use this probability along with a map of driving times to compute the probability of any candidate destination. Our tests show that halfway through the drive, we can predict the destination to within about 10 km, and at three quarters of the way, the error drops to about 3 km.