Application of Sensitivity and Reliability Analysis for Development of Thermal Protection Plans 2005-01-1903

This paper addresses the uncertainties in the thermal protection design process and their effect on the performance of the protected components. Based on the work presented in this paper, it will be possible to determine the confidence level that a given component will be maintained at its design temperature goals. It will also be possible to determine the most influential design parameters. In general, nominal or mean values of design parameters are used in design or rating calculations without consideration to the uncertainties inherent in them. Therefore, an estimate of the overall design uncertainty should be evaluated. Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is used to determine the overall design uncertainty, and evaluate design sensitivity to each of the design parameters. The probability or confidence level that a component will meet a certain design target can be determined. Therefore, it will be possible to determine the additional design modifications that may be needed to maintain the component within its thermal goals.