AMPS, Skidmarks and ITS: Managing Merging to Improve Safety and Traffic Flow 2002-01-0760

The genesis of the AMPS (Absent-Minded Professor Syndrome) Theory in presentations in Detroit, Paris, Seoul and Torino is reviewed. A ‘rappel’ is issued on the empirical relationship between the numbers of fatalities, PI's and ‘fender-benders’ and thus, by extension, ‘near-misses’ (as ‘recorded’ by skidmarks). Data on skidmark incidence from expressways in Australia, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Canada are analyzed using the AMPS theory. Observations on roads around the world (U.S.A., Korea, Japan and India as well as Denmark, France and Austria) and data on accident location (Verkehrspolizeiinspektion Ingolstadt) strongly support the detailed analysis. The author concludes that this evidence on ‘near-misses’ presents an opportunity to use ITS to substantially cut expressway ‘accidents’ by ‘managed merging’ at expressway entrance points.