Use of Probabilistics in Campaign Analysis 2001-01-3000

Significant advances have been made recently in applying probabilistic methods to aerospace vehicle concepts. Given the explosive changes that are occurring in today’s political, social, and technological climate, it makes practical sense to try and extrapolate these methods to the campaign analysis level. This would allow the assessment of rapidly changing threat environments as well as technological advancements, aiding today’s decision makers. The following paper summarizes attempts to apply these methods directly to campaign analysis, and discusses the resulting issues that were identified as potential problem areas. A new approach is postulated which includes the application of probabilistic methods to a fully linked analysis environment. Applying and validating these new methods is an ongoing project.