Further Studies Quantifying Human Thermal Modeling Uncertainties 2001-01-2265

The Wissler model and the 41-Node Man represent two human thermal models that have been studied by this group. It is difficult to model a complex system such as the human thermoregulatory system. Some of the uncertainty stems from inaccurate parameter values. To design an accurate human thermal model, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainties caused by variations in parameter values among humans. This paper identifies principal mechanisms of heat transfer within the 41-Node Man model, identifying the dominant parameters via a sensitivity analysis of the equations. Quantifying the errors associated with these model parameters leads to a simulation-based characterization of model response uncertainty with respect to several model outputs.