Journal Article
Monte Carlo Techniques for Correlated Variables in Crash Reconstruction
2009-04-20
2009-01-0104
The results of a traffic crash reconstruction often include vehicle speeds to address causation and changes in velocity to indicate crash severity. Since these results are related, they should be modeled in a probabilistic context as a joint distribution. Current techniques in the traffic crash reconstruction literature assume the the input parameters and results of an analysis are independent, which may or may not be appropriate. Therefore, a discussion of uncertainty propagation techniques with correlation and Monte Carlo simulation of correlated variables is presented in this paper. The idea that measuring a parameter with a common instrument induces correlation is explored by examining the process of determining vehicle weights. Also, an example of determining the energy from crush is presented since the A and B stiffness coefficients are correlated. Results show the difference between accounting for correlation and assuming independence may be significant.