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Affordable, reliable endo- and exoatmospheric transportation, for both the military and commercial sectors, grows in importance as the world grows smaller and space exploration and exploitation increasingly impact our daily lives. However, the impact of disciplinary, operational, and technological uncertainties inhibit the design of the requisite hypersonic vehicles, an inherently multidisciplinary and non-deterministic process. Without investigation, these components of design uncertainty undermine the designers’ decision-making confidence. In this paper, the authors propose a new probabilistic design method, using Bayesian Statistics techniques, which allows assessment of the impact of disciplinary uncertainty on the confidence in the design solution. The proposed development of a two-stage reusable launch vehicle configuration highlights the means to first quantify the fidelity of the disciplinary analysis tools utilized, then propagate such to the vehicle system level.

Over the past few years, modern aircraft design has experienced a paradigm shift from designing for performance to designing for affordability. This paper contains a probabilistic approach that will allow traditional deterministic design methods to be extended to account for disciplinary, economic, and technological uncertainty. The probabilistic approach was facilitated by the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) technique; a technique which allows the designer to gather valuable information about the vehicle's behavior in the design space. This technique is efficient for assessing multi-attribute, multi-constraint problems in a more realistic fashion. For implementation purposes, this technique is applied to illustrate how both economic and technological uncertainty associated with a Very Large Transport aircraft may be assessed.