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Technical Paper

Prediction of Solar Proton Peak Fluxes from Solar Electromagnetic Signatures

1993-07-01
932210
Solar flares which produce significant numbers of energetic protons are accompanied by optical, radio and x-ray emissions. Thus the capability for providing early warning of solar proton events (SPEs) is possible if the particle fluxes can be correlated with the electromagnetic signatures from the sun. We have continued to develop and refine the correlations between the proton fluxes in the SPE's and their electromagnetic emissions. Data from over most of solar cycle 21 and the early portion of cycle 22 have been used to extend our data base and improve the correlations between peak proton fluxes and the x-ray fluences which arrive at the earth earlier than the protons. A simple relationship has been derived between the probability of occurrence of an SPE and the observed x-ray fluence.
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