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Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs) has contributed to considerable debate regarding the market viability of such vehicles. One way to deal with such uncertainty, common to most emerging technologies, is to pool the judgments of experts in the field. Data from a two-stage Delphi study are used to project the future costs and operating characteristics of electric drive vehicles. The experts projected basic vehicle characteristics for EVs and HEVs for the period 2000-2020. They projected the mean EV range at 179 km in 2000, 270 km in 2010, and 358 km in 2020. The mean HEV range on battery power was projected as 145 km in 2000, 212 km in 2010, and 244 km in 2020. Experts' opinions on 10 battery technologies are analyzed and characteristics of initial battery packs for the mean power requirements are presented.

The strong correlation between vehicle weight and fuel economy for conventional vehicles (CVs) is considered common knowledge, and the relationship of mass reduction to fuel consumption reduction for conventional vehicles (CVs) is often cited without separating effects of powertrain vs. vehicle body (glider), nor on the ground of equivalent vehicle performance level. This paper challenges the assumption that this relationship is easily summarized. Further, for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) the relationship between mass, performance and fuel consumption is not the same as for CVs, and vary with hybrid types. For fully functioning (all wheel regeneration) hybrid vehicles, where battery pack and motor(s) have enough power and energy storage, a very large fraction of kinetic energy is recovered and engine idling is effectively eliminated.

Statistical analyses of the acceleration capability of gasoline vehicles have focused on zero to 97 km/h acceleration rates and have concluded that peak power per kilogram is an appropriate single surrogate for acceleration capability. In this paper, statistical methods are used with data for 107 vehicles tested and reported by Consumers Union for 1986-1988 model years to estimate the determinants of contemporary gasoline vehicle acceleration capability under various conditions, adding new variables to the statistical tests reported by others. Like previous studies, this analysis determined that power and weight provide the most information about acceleration capability. Using a model formulation unlike other studies, this study found that engine displacement also provides statistically significant improvements in explanation of 0-48, 0-97, and 48-97 km/h acceleration times.

Statistical methods are used with 107 vehicles whose fuel economy was presented and reported for five test types in a single publication by Consumers Union (CU) for 1986-1988 vehicles. Standard loglinear statistical formulations (i.e., multiplicative models of interactions) are used with data from this and supplementary sources to develop coefficients estimating the percent fuel economy gain per percent change in engine/vehicle design characteristic. The coefficients are developed for the five different test conditions evaluated by CU and are compared with each other on the basis of attributes of the tests. The insights of engineering models are used to develop expectations regarding the shift in size of coefficients as driving cycles change.

This paper explores the impact of U.S. emission controls and fuel economy improvements on the global warming potential (GWP) of new light-duty vehicles. Fuel economy improvements have reduced the GWP of both passenger cars and light-duty trucks by lowering the per mile emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Further GWP reductions have been achieved by emission standards for criteria pollutants: carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The GWP of a criteria pollutant was calculated by multiplying the emission rate by a relative global warming factor to obtain a CO2 equivalent emission rate. Both CO2 and criteria pollutant emission rates per vehicle have decreased substantially for new light-duty vehicles over the period from 1968 to 1991. Over that period, the GWP from CO2 was reduced by almost 50% in new vehicles by improving fuel economy.

The introduction of Toyota's hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), the Prius, in Japan has generated considerable interest in HEV technology among U.S. automotive experts. In a follow-up survey to Argonne National Laboratory's two-stage Delphi Study on electric and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs and HEVs) during 1994-1996, Argonne researchers gathered the latest opinions of automotive experts on the future “top-selling” HEV attributes and costs. The experts predicted that HEVs would have a spark-ignition gasoline engine as a power plant in 2005 and a fuel cell power plant by 2020. The projected 2020 fuel shares were about equal for gasoline and hydrogen, with methanol a distant third. In 2020, HEVs are predicted to have series-drive, moderate battery-alone range and cost significantly more than conventional vehicles (CVs). The HEV is projected to cost 66% more than a $20,000 CV initially and 33% more by 2020.