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The introduction of Toyota's hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), the Prius, in Japan has generated considerable interest in HEV technology among U.S. automotive experts. In a follow-up survey to Argonne National Laboratory's two-stage Delphi Study on electric and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs and HEVs) during 1994-1996, Argonne researchers gathered the latest opinions of automotive experts on the future “top-selling” HEV attributes and costs. The experts predicted that HEVs would have a spark-ignition gasoline engine as a power plant in 2005 and a fuel cell power plant by 2020. The projected 2020 fuel shares were about equal for gasoline and hydrogen, with methanol a distant third. In 2020, HEVs are predicted to have series-drive, moderate battery-alone range and cost significantly more than conventional vehicles (CVs). The HEV is projected to cost 66% more than a $20,000 CV initially and 33% more by 2020.

This paper presents the results of Argonne National Laboratory's assessment of the fuel-cycle energy and emissions impacts of 13 combinations of fuels and propulsion systems that are potential candidates for light-duty vehicles with tripled fuel economy (3X vehicles). These vehicles are being developed by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). Eleven fuels were considered: reformulated gasoline (RFG), reformulated diesel (RFD), methanol, ethanol, dimethyl ether, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), biodiesel, Fischer-Tropsch diesel and hydrogen. RFG, methanol, ethanol, LPG, CNG and LNG were assumed to be burned in spark-ignition, direct-injection (SIDI) engines. RFD, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, biodiesel and dimethyl ether were assumed to be burned in compression-ignition, direct-injection (CIDI) engines. Hydrogen, RFG and methanol were assumed to be used in fuel-cell vehicles.

Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs) has contributed to considerable debate regarding the market viability of such vehicles. One way to deal with such uncertainty, common to most emerging technologies, is to pool the judgments of experts in the field. Data from a two-stage Delphi study are used to project the future costs and operating characteristics of electric drive vehicles. The experts projected basic vehicle characteristics for EVs and HEVs for the period 2000-2020. They projected the mean EV range at 179 km in 2000, 270 km in 2010, and 358 km in 2020. The mean HEV range on battery power was projected as 145 km in 2000, 212 km in 2010, and 244 km in 2020. Experts' opinions on 10 battery technologies are analyzed and characteristics of initial battery packs for the mean power requirements are presented.

A two-stage Delphi study was conducted to collect information that would enable a technical and economic assessment of electric (EV) and hybrid electric (HEV) vehicles. The first-stage worldwide survey was completed in fall 1994 while the second-stage was completed by summer 1995. The paper reports results from the second round of the survey and the major differences between the two rounds. This second-stage international survey obtained information from 93 expert respondents from the automotive technology field. The second stage response provided the following key results. EVs will penetrate the market first followed by internal combustion engine powered HEVs while gas turbine and fuel cell powered HEVs will not have any significant penetration until after 2020. By 2020 EVs and internal combustion engine powered HEVs are projected to have approximately a 15% share of the new vehicle market.