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By almost any definition, technology has penetrated the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet significantly in conjunction with the increased stringency of fuel economy and GHG emissions regulations. The physical presence of advanced technology components provides one indication of the efforts taken to reduce emissions, but that alone does not provide a complete measure of the benefits of a particular technology application. Differences in the design of components, the materials used, the presence of other technologies, and the calibration of controls can impact the performance of technologies in any particular implementation. The effectiveness of a technology for reducing emissions will also be influenced by the extent to which the technologies are applied towards changes in vehicle operating characteristics such as improved acceleration, or customer features that may offset mass reduction from the use of lightweight materials.

In preparation for the midterm evaluation (MTE) of the 2022-2025 Light-Duty Greenhouse Gas (LD GHG) emissions standards, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is refining and revalidating their Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis (ALPHA) tool using newly acquired data from model year 2013-2015 engines and vehicles. ALPHA is a physics-based, forward-looking, full vehicle computer simulation capable of analyzing various vehicle types with different powertrain technologies, showing realistic vehicle behavior, and auditing of all internal energy flows in the model. As part of the validation of ALPHA, the EPA obtained model year 2014 Dodge Chargers equipped with 3.6 liter V6 engines and either a NAG1 five-speed automatic transmission or an 845RE eight-speed automatic transmission.

This paper examines the pace at which manufacturers have added certain powertrain technology into new vehicles from model year 1975 to the present. Based on data from the EPA's Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends database [1], the analysis will focus on several key technologies that have either reached a high level of penetration in light duty vehicles, or whose use in the new vehicle fleet has been growing in recent years. The findings indicate that individual manufacturers have, at times, implemented new technology across major portions of their new vehicle offerings in only a few model years. This is an important clarification to prior EPA analysis that indicated much longer adoption times for the industry as a whole. This new analysis suggests a technology penetration paradigm where individual manufacturers have a much shorter technology penetration cycle than the overall industry, due to “sequencing” by individual manufacturers.