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As part of an ongoing assessment of the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of light-duty vehicles, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has implemented an updated methodology for applying the results of full vehicle simulations to the range of vehicles across the entire fleet. The key elements of the updated methodology explored for this article, responsive to stakeholder input on the EPA’s fleet compliance modeling, include (1) greater transparency in the process used to determine technology effectiveness and (2) a more direct incorporation of full vehicle simulation results. This article begins with a summary of the methodology for representing existing technology implementations in the baseline fleet using EPA’s Advanced Light-duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis (ALPHA) full vehicle simulation. To characterize future technologies, a full factorial ALPHA simulation of every conventional technology combination to be considered was conducted.

By almost any definition, technology has penetrated the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet significantly in conjunction with the increased stringency of fuel economy and GHG emissions regulations. The physical presence of advanced technology components provides one indication of the efforts taken to reduce emissions, but that alone does not provide a complete measure of the benefits of a particular technology application. Differences in the design of components, the materials used, the presence of other technologies, and the calibration of controls can impact the performance of technologies in any particular implementation. The effectiveness of a technology for reducing emissions will also be influenced by the extent to which the technologies are applied towards changes in vehicle operating characteristics such as improved acceleration, or customer features that may offset mass reduction from the use of lightweight materials.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency contracted with FEV North America, Inc. to conduct a whole vehicle analysis of the potential for mass reduction and related cost impacts for a future light-duty pickup truck. The goal was to evaluate the incremental costs of reducing vehicle mass on a body on frame vehicle at levels that are feasible in the 2020 to 2025 model year (MY) timeframe given the design, material, and manufacturing processes likely to be available, without sacrificing utility, performance, or safety. The holistic, vehicle-level approach and body-structure CAE modeling that were demonstrated in a previous study of a mid-sized crossover utility vehicle were used for this study. In addition, evaluations of closures performance, durability, and vehicle dynamics that are unique to pickup trucks are included. Secondary mass reduction was also analyzed on a part by part basis with consideration of vehicle performance requirements.

This paper examines the pace at which manufacturers have added certain powertrain technology into new vehicles from model year 1975 to the present. Based on data from the EPA's Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends database [1], the analysis will focus on several key technologies that have either reached a high level of penetration in light duty vehicles, or whose use in the new vehicle fleet has been growing in recent years. The findings indicate that individual manufacturers have, at times, implemented new technology across major portions of their new vehicle offerings in only a few model years. This is an important clarification to prior EPA analysis that indicated much longer adoption times for the industry as a whole. This new analysis suggests a technology penetration paradigm where individual manufacturers have a much shorter technology penetration cycle than the overall industry, due to “sequencing” by individual manufacturers.

In response to more stringent greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards and increasing consumer demand for fuel efficient vehicles, automobile manufacturers have identified vehicle mass reduction as a leading strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving fuel economy. The potential for significant levels of mass reduction can only be understood using a full-vehicle analysis, partly because mass reduction in one vehicle system or part can enable additional reductions elsewhere. This paper describes a holistic approach in which the most cost-effective mass reduction ideas were selected using a structured optimization procedure, and the crash safety of the resultant design was evaluated using a full-vehicle engineering analysis.