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Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) models have proven themselves to be efficient surrogates of real-world systems in automotive industries and academia. To successfully integrate the CAE models into analysis process, model validation is necessarily required to assess the models’ predictive capabilities regarding their intended usage. In the context of model validation, quantitative comparison which considers specific measurements in real-world systems and corresponding simulations serves as a principal step in the assessment process. For applications such as side impact analysis, surface deformation is frequently regarded as a critical factor to be measured for the validation of CAE models. However, recent approaches for such application are commonly based on graphical comparison, while researches on the quantitative metric for surface-surface comparison are rarely found.

With the increasing development in automotive industry, finite element (FE) analysis with model bias prediction has been used more and more widely in the fields of chassis design, body weight reduction optimization and some components development, which reduced the development cycles and enhanced analysis accuracy significantly. However, in the simulation process of plastic fuel tank system, there is few study of model validation or verification, which results that non-risky design decisions cannot be enhanced due to too much consuming time. In this study, to correct the discrepancy and uncertainty of the simulated finite element model, Bayesian inference-based method is employed, to quantify model uncertainty and evaluate the simulated results based on collected data from real mechanical tests of plastic fuel tanks and FE simulations under the same boundary conditions.