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Technical Paper

Analysis of the Current Practices with Reliability Prediction

Abstract This paper will discuss the problem of improving reliability prediction. It will consider the analytical advantages and disadvantages of the current situation in both the theoretical and practical aspects of reliability prediction for industry. This problem relates to many different areas of engineering. The author will detail how much of the current predicting is inaccurate when it is based on information obtained by using traditional approaches of accelerated life testing (ALT) where the data related to the degradation (failure) process differs substantially from the product’s degradation process during its service life under real world conditions. Through analysis of publications coupled with this author’s thinking the paper will consider the accuracy of currently used reliability prediction methods.
Technical Paper

Why Separate Simulation of Input Influences for Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing is Not Effective?

Abstract This paper considers the situation in the laboratory testing: different stress types and accelerated testing, including accelerated reliability/durability testing, accelerated life testing, reliability testing, proving grounds, vibration, temperature, voltage, humidity, and others. In comparison with field situation, most of these testing simulate only one or part of the field input influences. One uses often not accurately the theory of physics-of-degradation process or failures for comparison of the field results with laboratory results. This situation will be considered with practical examples. It will be demonstrated that often used laboratory testing does not offer the possibility for successful prediction of product performance during service life As a result, there are many complaints, recalls, and less profit than was predicted during design and manufacturing. It will be shown how one can improve this situation..

Successful Prediction of Product Performance

The ability to successfully predict industrial product performance during service life provides benefits for producers and users. This book addresses methods to improve product quality, reliability, and durability during the product life cycle, along with methods to avoid costs that can negatively impact profitability plans. The methods presented can be applied to reducing risk in the research and design processes and integration with manufacturing methods to successfully predict product performance. This approach incorporates components that are based on simulations in the laboratory. The results are combined with in-field testing to determine degradation parameters. These approaches result in improvements to product quality, performance, safety, profitability, and customer satisfaction.
Technical Paper

Improving Engineering Culture For Reliability, Quality & Testing in Automotive Engineering (Updated)

Abstract This paper will discuss the problem of improving engineering culture for development reliability, quality, and testing of the automotive industry product. The basic approach relates to other industries too. The paper will consider why it is so important for engineers and managers, and how it relates to Systems Engineering, which simply stated is , a system which is an integrated composite of people, products, and processes that provides a capability to satisfy a stated need or objective. One of the basic problems of management is strategic thinking. Predicting is inaccurate when it is based on information obtained from using traditional approaches of accelerated life testing (ALT) data where the degradation (failure) processes differ substantially from the product’s degradation processes during service life under real world conditions.
Technical Paper

Introduction to Successful Predicting of Product Performance (Reliability, Durability, Safety, Quality, Recalls, Profit, Life Cycle Cost, and Others)

Abstract This paper will discuss the problem with successful predicting of product performance (reliability, quality, durability, safety, recalls, profit, life cycle cost, and other interconnected technical and economic components of performance). The best component for analysing the performance situation during service life, including predicting, is recalls, because, first, recall accumulates the safety, reliability, durability, quality, profit, and total economic situation. And second, there is open official and objective information about the number of recalls from Government (National Highway Trafic Safety Administration and others), as well as companies-producers. Therefore, for analyzing the situation with the product performance, including predicting, this paper considers the situation with recalls.
Technical Paper

The Role of Accurate Simulation of Real World Conditions and ART/ADT Technology for Accurate Efficiency Predicting of the Product/Process

Abstract This paper will discuss how accurate simulation of the real world conditions and ART/ADT (accelerated reliability/durability testing) technology is influencing accurate efficiency predicting as a final goal of product/process design, manufacturing, and development. The paper begins with the overview of current approaches of predicting the efficiency for a complete product and its components with an examples of life cycle costs (LCC), empirical reliability, physics-based reliability, their benefits and risks. It includes also the history of reliability prediction. As a result of the overview, it will be conclude that one cannot ensure that predicting results will not be misinterpreted or misapplied, even though all assumptions and rationale have been meticulously documented and clearly stated.
Technical Paper

Development of Accelerated Reliability/Durability Testing Standardization as a Component of Trends in Development Accelerated Reliability Testing (ART/ADT)

There are no standards that directly consider practical reliability testing technology (methods and equipment). This void needs to be filled. The SAE G-11 division has approved the development of six new standards to fill this void. This paper discusses these six standards: 1) Reliability Test-Glossary; 2) Reliability Testing-Strategy; 3) Reliability Testing-Procedures; 4) Reliability Testing-Equipment; 5) Reliability Testing-Statistical Criteria for Comparison of Reliability Testing Results and Field Results; 6) Reliability Testing-Collection, Calculation, and Statistical Analysis of Reliability Testing Data, Development Recommendations for Improvement of Test Subject Reliability, Durability, and Maintainability.
Technical Paper

Development Standardization “Glossary” and “Strategy” for Reliability Testing as a Component of Trends in Development of ART/ADT

This paper will discuss the first two standards in the six-part series of SAE International reliability testing documents that are being developed by the SAE G11 Reliability Committee. These two documents attempt to standardize the glossary and strategy associated with reliability testing technology. A new Glossary standard has been drafted that defines the most commonly used words and terms associated with reliability (accelerated reliability/durability) testing. It is intended to serve as a basis for reliability testing definitions and to reduce the possibility of conflicts, duplications, and incorrect interpretations either expressed or implied elsewhere in the technical literature. Terms and definitions included in this standard are important in the acquisition of weapon systems (where there is a need for precise and unambiguous technical definitions), and are expressed clearly (and without mathematical symbols whenever possible).
Technical Paper

About Trends in the Strategy of Development Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology

Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) is now the primary source for obtaining initial information for predicting a product's reliability, durability and maintainability. This paper shows that such testing fails to offer relevant information, because the product's degradation process in testing conditions differs substantially from the product's degradation process under field conditions. Consequently, the mean-time-to-failure is skewed, resulting in problems with recalls, reliability, and maintainability. Accelerated reliability and durability testing technology (ART/ADT) is an approach to the problem which can improve the situation with more accurate prediction of reliability and durability.
Technical Paper

Why Current Types of Accelerated Stress Testing Cannot Help to Accurately Predict Reliability and Durability?

This paper demonstrates the results of the analysis of the current practical situation in product reliability and durability as well as accelerated stress testing development. High stress testing is now the basic source for obtaining initial information to provide a prediction of a product's reliability and durability. This paper shows that this testing cannot offer information for the accurate prediction of reliability and durability, because the product degradation process during the testing differs from the product degradation process during the actual field situation. As a result, the time to failures also differs.
Technical Paper

Analysis of the Current Situation in Reliability, Quality, and Durability, and the Reasons for this Situation

The paper demonstrates the results of the analysis of reliability, quality and durability in the industrial areas (automotive, aerospace, electronics, etc.), and shows the reasons for the negative aspects of this situation and how to eliminate them. Automotive vehicles recalls have increased dramatically over the years. In the automotive industry the companies, which have a high reputation in quality and reliability, have a much lower reliability and durability record than people think. Analysis discloses that in Europe recalls mostly affect buyers in the German market. This situation relates to vehicles for the Army too. In the electronics area the situation is not any better. The paper gives many examples of the current situation.
Technical Paper

Accelerated Reliability/Durability Testing as a Key Factor for Accelerated Development and Improvement of Product/Process Reliability, Durability, and Maintainability

This paper demonstrates the results of the analysis of current situation in prediction of reliability, durability, quality, and maintainability; as well as results of development methodology and equipment for accelerated reliability testing which is a key factor in improving the current situation in the above areas. The implementation of 10 basic new concepts of this development decreases recalls, complaints, and total life-cycle cost of the product by at least 33% to 47%. This paper compares basic principles of new concepts with current ones. Practical accelerated reliability assurance for complex mobile systems and components based on multipurpose accelerated reliability testing (ART) is presented and illustrated. ART optimization and enhancement based on early reliability physics, systemic failure analysis and customized applied statistics covering various stages of R&D, manufacturing, and field service is justified and detailed.
Technical Paper

Development Common Problems of Reliability Application in the Automotive and Other Industries

In a real life situation the product's reliability depends on many factors. Practical methodology of taking these factors into account has a common base. This paper analyzes the current situation of common problems in reliability application in different areas of industry such as automotive, aerospace, aircraft, off-highway, civil engineering, naval engineering, farm machinery, etc. The important common problems relate to the connection and interconnections of: reliability (durability, maintainability) with quality during a given time; reliability with simulation; reliability with safety; reliability with human factors; and others. This paper also demonstrates how one can solve these problems and increase reliability through the use of interdisciplinary systems of systems approach which helps to take into account the above connections and interconnections.
Technical Paper

Why We Have Problems with Effective Reliability Testing Performance?

Many engineers and managers use the words “reliability testing”, fewer people think that they provide reliability testing, but often, in fact, neither of them do it. The basic reason is: none of them understands clearly what this type of testing means and how it is different from other type of testing. The literature and practice show that professionals who use vibration testing, or thermal shock testing, or environmental testing, or HALT (HASS) [22], or other types of testing think that they provide reliability testing. Companies from a wide range of industries, both in specialization and size make this error. This paper analyzes why often the knowledge of reliability testing is so poor. As a result, the process of reliability development and improvement is often slower than it might be.
Technical Paper

The Strategy to Improve Engineering Concepts of Automotive Reliability, Durability, and Maintainability Integrated with Quality

This paper analyzes the current situation for reliability & quality (RQ), and shows that both are being solved separately, which is an obstacle for improvement of RQ of the product, that worsens the situation in the market, and, therefore, the financial situation of the companies-producers. The strategy of the proposed engineering concepts of reliability integrated with quality can eliminate the above problem. Two basic components of the strategy are shown: development of a complex quality system and useful accelerated reliability testing (UART). For development and use of UART one must first, develop and use new methodology and equipment to increase its usefulness in performance.
Technical Paper

Analysis of Different Approaches to Reliability Testing

This paper analyzes the current situation in practical approaches for testing used for evaluation, prediction, development, and improvement of product reliability. It is shown that using practically reliability testing approaches can be: helpful, minimal or useless, and harmful. It describes when each of the above approaches can be used and why. It also describes how one can make reliability testing a useful practical tool. The strategy is shown by the examples of how one can execute this useful practical tool and improve the current situation with reliability testing.
Technical Paper

Accelerated Reliability Testing Problems Solving

This paper analyzes the current approaches and problems in the development of accelerated reliability testing (ART) of vehicles (components and completed product) and why in the practice ART or AT results often differ from field results. It also includes an introduction to the basic concepts of accurate ART technology: accurate simulation of all real life input influences which cause failures, simultaneously and in a combination; reproduction of the complete range of field schedules and maintenance, the proportion of heavy and light loads; not included in the test program is idle time and time with minimum loading; take into account the cumulative reaction of the product on the input influences; simulation of interconnections both between different field input influences and between components of whole machines, etc. It can be the best results of testing during the design process, but during manufacturing the reliability of a product can decrease.
Technical Paper

Equipment for Accelerated Reliability Testing of Cars and their Components

This paper analyses the current approaches in the development of accelerated stress testing, and describes why present test equipment cannot provide the simulation of simultaneous combination of basic field influences on the car and car's components. The authors show a new perspective for the evalution of equipment development for accelerated testing (AT) which would eliminate the above negative aspect and solve the problem of accurate simulation of real life input influences on the natural product for its reliability improvement.
Technical Paper

The Strategy of Accelerated Reliability Testing Development for Car Components

This paper analyzes the reasons why current accelerated reliability testing (ART) results for passenger cars often cannot give accurate information for sufficient reliability, fatigue, and durability evaluation and prediction in the field. Why does accelerated testing (AT) give often minimum benefits for companies that use it? The basic principles of strategy that can help to eliminate these reasons will be described.