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This paper illustrates the development of an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) to integrate the safety risks contributing to a notional “lost link” scenario for a small UAS (sUAS). This hypothetical case investigates the possibility of a “lost link” for the sUAS during the bridge inspection mission leading to a collision of the sUAS with the bridge. Hazard causal factors associated with the air vehicle, operations, airmen and the environment may be combined in an integrative safety risk model. With the creation of a probabilistic risk model, inferences about changes to the states of the mishap shaping or causal factors can be drawn quantitatively. These predictive safety inferences derive from qualitative reasoning to conclusions based on data, assumptions, and/or premises and enable an analyst to identify the most prominent causal factor clusters. Such an approach also supports a mitigation portfolio study and assessment.

This paper presents a probabilistic approach for using the model-based reasoning of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to perform risk assessments of new aviation safety products. Sponsored by NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program [1], the author is leading a research team at Rutgers University in the creation of aircraft accident models in order to assess the projected relative risk reductions of an aeronautics technology portfolio. The modeling approach uses elements from a case study architecture, inductive reasoning and analytic generalization. Aspects of the modeling approach, including knowledge capture and sensitivity analyses are emphasized and preliminary results discussed.

An Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) integrates Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, such as expert systems and neural networks, with classical decision analytic approaches to provide advanced information technology support. This paper discusses the development of an IDSS prototype, termed the Intelligent Safety Performance, Evaluation, and Control (InSPEC) System, that is designed to provide advanced decision support for aviation safety analysis. The five decision support modules of the InSPEC System are briefly described.