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Probabilistic studies can be prohibitively expensive because they require repeated finite element analyses of large models. Re-analysis methods have been proposed with the premise to estimate accurately the dynamic response of a structure after a baseline design has been modified, without recalculating the new response. Although these methods increase computational efficiency, they are still not efficient enough for probabilistic analysis of large-scale dynamic systems with low failure probabilities (less or equal to 10-3). This paper presents a methodology that uses deterministic and probabilistic re-analysis methods to generate sample points of the response. Subsequently, tail modeling is used to estimate the right tail of the response PDF and the probability of failure a highly reliable system. The methodology is demonstrated on probabilistic vibration analysis of a realistic vehicle FE model.

In reliability design, often, there is scarce data for constructing probabilistic models. It is particularly challenging to model uncertainty in variables when the type of their probability distribution is unknown. Moreover, it is expensive to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the reliability of a system involving such variables. A method for modeling uncertainty by using Polynomial Chaos Expansion is presented. The method requires specifying bounds for statistical summaries such as the first four moments and credible intervals. A constrained optimization problem, in which decision variables are the coefficients of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion approximation, is formulated and solved in order to estimate the minimum and maximum values of a system’s reliability. This problem is solved efficiently by employing a probabilistic re-analysis approach to approximate the system reliability as a function of the moments of the random variables.

A complete probabilistic model of uncertainty in probabilistic analysis and design problems is the joint probability distribution of the random variables. Often, it is impractical to estimate this joint probability distribution because the mechanism of the dependence of the variables is not completely understood. This paper proposes modeling dependence by using copulas and demonstrates their representational power. It also compares this representation with a Monte-Carlo simulation using dispersive sampling.

An accurate and efficient Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is developed in this paper for limit state-based reliability analysis, especially at system levels, by using a response surface approximation of the failure indicator function. The Moving Least Squares (MLS) method is used to construct the response surface of the indicator function, along with an Optimum Symmetric Latin Hypercube (OSLH) as the sampling technique. Similar to MCS, the proposed method can easily handle implicit, highly nonlinear limit-state functions, with variables of any statistical distributions and correlations. However, the efficiency of MCS can be greatly improved. The method appears to be particularly efficient for multiple limit state and multiple design point problem. A mathematical example and a practical example are used to highlight the superior accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method over traditional reliability methods.

An efficient simulation-based method is proposed for the reliability analysis of a vehicle body-door subsystem with respect to an important quality issue -- wind noise. A nonlinear seal model is constructed for the automotive wind noise problem and the limit state function is evaluated using finite element analysis. Existing analytical as well as simulation-based methods are used to solve this problem. A multi-modal adaptive importance sampling method is then developed for reliability analysis at system level. It is demonstrated through this industrial application problem that the multi-modal adaptive importance sampling method is superior to existing methods in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The method can easily handle implicit limit-state functions, with variables of any statistical distributions.

Robust design is a methodology for improving the quality of a product or process by minimizing the effect of variations in the inputs without eliminating the causes of those variations. In robust design, the putative best design is obtained by solving a multi-criteria optimization problem, trading off the nominal performance against the minimization of the variation of the performance measure. Because some existing methods combine the two criteria with a weighted sum or another fixed aggregation strategy, which are known to miss Pareto points, they may fail to obtain a desired design. To overcome this inadequacy, a more comprehensive preference aggregation method is implemented here into robust design. Three examples -- one simple mathematical example, one multi-criteria structure design example, and one automotive example -- are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

There are two sorts of uncertainty inherent in engineering design, the random and the epistemic. Random, or stochastic, uncertainty deals with the randomness or predictability of an event. It is well understood, easily modeled using classical probability, and ideal for such uncertainties as variations in manufacturing processes or material properties. Epistemic uncertainty deals with our lack of knowledge, our lack of information, and our own and others' subjectivity concerning design parameters. Epistemic uncertainty plays a particularly important role in the early stages of engineering design, when a lack of information about nominal values of parameters is much more important than potential variations in those parameters. Design reuse, or the design of product platforms, is an example in which epistemic uncertainty can play a crucial role in early design.

This paper presents the development of surrogate models (metamodels) for evaluating the bearing performance in an internal combustion engine. The metamodels are employed for performing probabilistic analyses for the engine bearings. The metamodels are developed based on results from a simulation solver computed at a limited number of sample points, which sample the design space. An integrated system-level engine simulation model, consisting of a flexible crankshaft dynamics model and a flexible engine block model connected by a detailed hydrodynamic lubrication model, is employed in this paper for generating information necessary to construct the metamodels. An optimal symmetric latin hypercube algorithm is utilized for identifying the sampling points based on the number and the range of the variables that are considered to vary in the design space.

This paper proposes an approach for optimal design of multilevel systems under uncertainty. The approach utilizes the stochastic extension of the analytical target cascading formulation. The reliability of satisfying the probabilistic constraints is computed by means of the most probable point method using the hybrid mean value algorithm. A linearization technique is employed for estimating the propagation of uncertainties throughout the problem hierarchy. The proposed methodology is applied to a piston-ring/cylinder-liner engine subassembly design problem. Specifically, we assess the impact of variations in manufacturing-related properties such as surface roughness on engine attributes such as brake-specific fuel consumption. Results are compared to the ones obtained using Monte Carlo simulation.

A fast and accurate journal bearing elastohydrodynamic analysis is presented based on a finite difference formulation. The governing equations for the oil film pressure, stiffness and damping are solved using a finite difference approach. The oil film domain is discretized using a rectangular two-dimensional finite difference mesh. In this new formulation, it is not necessary to generate a global fluidity matrix similar to a finite element based solution. The finite difference equations are solved using a successive over relaxation (SOR) algorithm. The concept of “Influence Zone,” for computing the dynamic characteristics is introduced. The SOR algorithm and the “Influence Zone” concept significantly improve the computational efficiency without loss of accuracy. The new algorithms are validated with numerical results from the literature and their numerical efficiency is demonstrated.

When the finite element model of a complex structure is partitioned into substructures in order to enable component mode synthesis, the reduced order model obtained from the Craig-Bampton method often features a large number of interface degrees of freedom (DOF). The authors have recently developed a method to reduce the interface DOF by using a set of so-called characteristic constraint (CC) modes. The resultant, highly compact CC-mode-based reduced order model provides a good platform to calculate the power flow between substructures. In this paper, the CC-mode method is applied to the finite element model of a vehicle structure with about 1.5 million DOF. A convergence study is conducted to find optimal mode selection criteria, and a 2124 DOF reduced order model is obtained for the 0-200 Hz range by using the CC-mode method.

A comprehensive formulation is presented for the dynamics of a rotating flexible crankshaft coupled with the dynamics of an engine block through a finite difference elastohydrodynamic main bearing lubrication algorithm. The coupling is based on detailed equilibrium conditions at the bearings. The component mode synthesis is employed for modeling the crankshaft and block dynamic behavior. A specialized algorithm for coupling the rigid and flexible body dynamics of the crankshaft within the framework of the component mode synthesis has been developed. A finite difference lubrication algorithm is used for computing the oil film elastohydrodynamic characteristics. A computationally accurate and efficient mapping algorithm has been developed for transferring information between a high - density computational grid for the elastohydrodynamic bearing solver and a low - density structural grid utilized in computing the crankshaft and block structural dynamic response.

This paper presents the development of surrogate models (metamodels) for evaluating the bearing performance in an internal combustion engine without performing time consuming analyses. The metamodels are developed based on results from actual simulation solvers computed at a limited number of sample points, which sample the design space. A finite difference bearing solver is employed in this paper for generating information necessary to construct the metamodels. An optimal symmetric Latin hypercube algorithm is utilized for identifying the sampling points based on the number and the range of the variables that are considered to vary in the design space. The development of the metamodels is validated by comparing results from the metamodels with results from the actual bearing performance solver over a large number of evaluation points. Once the metamodels are established they are employed for performing probabilistic analyses.

Reliability and resiliency (R&R) definitions differ depending on the system under consideration. Generally, each engineering sector defines relevant R&R metrics pertinent to their system. While this can impede cross-disciplinary engineering projects as well as research, it is a necessary strategy to capture all the relevant system characteristics. This paper highlights the difficulties associated with defining performance of such systems while using smart microgrids as an example. Further, it develops metrics and definitions that are useful in assessing their performance, based on utility theory. A microgrid must not only anticipate load conditions but also tolerate partial failures and remain optimally operating. Many of these failures happen infrequently but unexpectedly and therefore are hard to plan for. We discuss real life failure scenarios and show how the proposed definitions and metrics are beneficial.

Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (SBR), a copolymer of butadiene and styrene, is widely used in the automotive industry due to its high durability and resistance to abrasion, oils and oxidation. Some of the common applications include tires, vibration isolators, and gaskets, among others. This paper characterizes the dynamic behavior of SBR and discusses the suitability of a visco-elastic model of elastomers, known as the Kelvin model, from a mathematical and physical point of view. An optimization algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of the Kelvin model. The resulting model was shown to produce reasonable approximations of measured dynamic stiffness. The model was also used to calculate the self heating of the elastomer due to energy dissipation by the viscous damping components in the model. Developing such a predictive capability is essential in understanding the dynamic behavior of elastomers considering that their dynamic stiffness can in general depend on temperature.

The availability of computational resources has enabled an increased utilization of Design of Experiments (DoE) and metamodeling (response surface generation) for large-scale optimization problems. Despite algorithmic advances however, the analysis of systems such as water jackets of an automotive engine, can be computationally demanding in part due to the required accuracy of metamodels. Because the metamodels may have many inputs, their accuracy depends on the number of training points and how well they cover the entire design (input) space. For this reason, the space-filling properties of the DoE are very important. This paper utilizes a new group-based DoE algorithm with space-filling groups of points to construct a metamodel. Points are added sequentially so that the space-filling properties of the entire group of points is preserved. The addition of points is continuous until a specified metamodel accuracy is met.

Monte Carlo simulation is a popular tool for reliability assessment because of its robustness and ease of implementation. A major concern with this method is its computational cost; standard Monte Carlo simulation requires quadrupling the number of replications for halving the standard deviation of the estimated failure probability. Efforts to increase efficiency focus on intelligent sampling procedures and methods for efficient calculation of the performance function of a system. This paper proposes a new method to manage cost that views design as a decision among alternatives with uncertain reliabilities. Information from a simulation has value only if it enables the designer to make a better choice among the alternative options. Consequently, the value of information from the simulation is equal to the gain from using this information to improve the decision. A designer can determine the number of replications that are worth performing by using the method.

Reaching a system level reliability target is an inverse problem. Component level reliabilities are determined for a required system level reliability. Because this inverse problem does not have a unique solution, one approach is to tradeoff system reliability with cost and to allow the designer to select a design with a target system reliability, using his/her preferences. In this case, the component reliabilities are readily available from the calculation of the reliability-cost tradeoff. To arrive at the set of solutions to be traded off, one encounters two problems. First, the system reliability calculation is based on repeated system simulations where each system state, indicating which components work and which have failed, is tested to determine if it causes system failure, and second, the task of eliciting and encoding the decision maker's preferences is extremely difficult because of uncertainty in modeling the decision maker's preferences.

A vehicle drivetrain is designed to meet specific vehicle performance criteria which usually involve trade-offs among conflicting performance measures. This paper describes a methodology to optimize the drivetrain design including the axle ratio, transmission shift points and transmission shift ratios considering uncertainty. A complete vehicle dynamic model is developed using the bond graph method. The model includes the vehicle, engine, transmission, torque converter, driveline, and transmission controller. An equivalent MATLAB Simulink model performs the nonlinear dynamic analysis. In order to reduce the computational effort, a time-dependent metamodel is developed based on principal component analysis using singular value decomposition. The optimization is performed using both the Simulink vehicle dynamic model and the metamodel. A deterministic optimization first determines the optimum design in terms of fuel economy, without considering variations or uncertainties.

Design optimization often relies on computational models, which are subjected to a validation process to ensure their accuracy. Because validation of computer models in the entire design space can be costly, we have previously proposed an approach where design optimization and model validation, are concurrently performed using a sequential approach with variable-size local domains. We used test data and statistical bootstrap methods to size each local domain where the prediction model is considered validated and where design optimization is performed. The method proceeds iteratively until the optimum design is obtained. This method however, requires test data to be available in each local domain along the optimization path. In this paper, we refine our methodology by using polynomial regression to predict the size and shape of a local domain at some steps along the optimization process without using test data.